The example assumes a goods price of €750/t, transport €60/t and other costs €20/t, so €83,000 for goods and transport. The figures come from our free calculator, which uses the official European Commission files with default values and benchmarks.
The calculation, step by step
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Default value China, direct emissions | 3.565 t CO₂e/t |
| With the 2026 mark-up of 10% | 3.9215 t CO₂e/t |
| Embedded emissions (× 100 t) | 392.15 t CO₂e |
| Minus the free allocation adjustment (benchmark 1.491 × CBAM factor 97.5% × 100 t) | 145.37 t CO₂e |
| Certificates to surrender | 246.78 |
| Certificate price Q3 2026 | €82.32 |
| CBAM cost | €20,314.72 (€203.15/t) |
| Total landed cost | €103,314.72, of which CBAM 19.66% |
For iron and steel, direct emissions are counted. One CBAM certificate covers 1 t CO₂e.
How high the cost can go by 2034
At the same volume, the cost rises to about €38,151 in 2034. The reason: the mark-up on default values rises to 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028, and the free allocation adjustment falls to zero by 2034.
| Year | Mark-up | CBAM factor | Certificates | CBAM cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10% | 97.5% | 246.78 | €20,314.72 |
| 2027 | 20% | 95.0% | 286.15 | €23,556.28 |
| 2028 | 30% | 90.0% | 329.26 | €27,104.68 |
| 2029 | 30% | 77.5% | 347.90 | €28,638.92 |
| 2030 | 30% | 51.5% | 386.66 | €31,830.14 |
| 2031 | 30% | 39.0% | 405.30 | €33,364.38 |
| 2032 | 30% | 26.5% | 423.94 | €34,898.62 |
| 2033 | 30% | 14.0% | 442.58 | €36,432.86 |
| 2034 | 30% | 0.0% | 463.45 | €38,151.20 |
Assumption: constant price of €82.32. From 2027 the Commission publishes a weekly price, so real figures will differ. The cross-sectoral correction factor for 2031-2034 is still a preliminary value.
The import quarter matters
In 2026 each quarter has its own price. For the same 246.78 certificates:
| Import quarter | Certificate price | CBAM cost |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | €75.36 | €18,597.15 |
| Q2 2026 | €75.28 | €18,577.41 |
| Q3 2026 | €82.32 | €20,314.72 |
| Q4 2026 | not published yet (4 Jan 2027) | known after publication |
How to pay less
The cost only falls if the factory has lower actual emissions, verified by an accredited verifier. The factory pays for verification, and small factories usually don't do it, so default values apply to them. See the guide default values vs verified data.